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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd