This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
Just 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.