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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent underperformers rising together. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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