Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
