Peace Plans Set to be Presented to Russia Within Days, States Ukraine's President
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.
Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.
Defense Assurances and Allied Backing
“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.
Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”
However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Land Issue
The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.
The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Potential Outcomes
It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.
“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.
