A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
