Daily Killings in Mexico Decline 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The mean figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government figures. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the least amount of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it might hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.